The scary part there is that it sounds entirely plausible to me.

Perception has a lot to do with reality. That’s why it’s going to come down to whomever had the better marketing strategy and NOT for what they stand for…

… People are dumb blind sheep.

That’s why polls don’t really mean too much. When they say +/- 3 percent they really mean +/- 30%.

Who needs “leaders”? Where are the guns, egeek?

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/23/is-this-really-a-one-point-race.aspx

My take on this has to do with the Presidential election.

You see headlines (more as we get closer to the General Election) about one candidate having a certain margin or a wider appeal.

But isn’t this just political slant by pollsters and news organizations? While these types of polls are supposed to be scientific to a degree, I can’t read how they went about determining the polling population. Therefore, I can’t say that their methodology isn’t flawed in an additional way to what you state above.

These polls usually cover America as a whole and therein lies the flaw. The Presidential election is not a popular vote election. The electoral college determines who we place in office. Therefore, it doesn’t matter if 50% plus 1 or 100% of the voters prefer one candidate over the other in Hawaii. To the electoral college, it means the same thing.

As such, you can have wide ranging popularity increases for a candidate in certain states and have it make no difference to the election. The diffence is only in the states that could swing one way or the other.

If the polls don’t factor this in, the polls can misrepresent the predicted outcome of the election. Meanwhile, public perception begins to change, news organizations start talking about how a candidate is leading / trailing, what the candidate needs to do to stay ahead / make up ground, analyze strategy from the the ahead / behind perspective, etc. Suddenly, momentum begins to take over. One has now become described as desparate and the other confident.

Does perception then becomes reality? Are undecided voters in swing states swayed by these polls? Why aren’t the polls exclusive to individual swing states?

On a personal note, I’m not sure how much credibility I give to polls or surveys in general. They are usually not unbiased. Why? Because someone had to fund the poll. I was once told if you find out who funded the poll, the results often fall in line with the position the funder holds. I’ve checked this out a number of times and have found it to be true. But take it for as little as it’s worth. After all, it’s coming from me.